The need for theoretically estimating human losses in real time Earthquake casualty estimation

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the estimates of fatalities distributed email qlarm team of international centre earth simulation foundation (ices) within 100 minutes of wenchuan earthquake 55,000 ± 30,000, includes final toll of 87,000.


for 2009 l aquila earthquake, m6.3 earthquake, qlarms estimate of fatalities 275 ±200, 22 minutes after event. final death toll 287. in both cases, official fatality count slow reflect true extent of disasters. thus, theoretical estimates of fatalities in real time can useful reacting appropriate disaster relief response, though these estimates have large error margins. current qlarm alerts can found at, alarms geological survey pager team found at.








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