State of the art Earthquake casualty estimation

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1 state of art

1.1 uncertainties in real-time estimates
1.2 existing earthquake loss alert services
1.3 estimating losses due tsunami
1.4 improvements in accuracy





state of art
uncertainties in real-time estimates

uncertainties in real-time estimates of human losses factor of two, @ best. 1 may group seriousness introducing errors in loss estimates due uncertain input, 3 classes: serious, moderate, , negligible.


the size of serious errors order of magnitude (meaning factor of 10). can generated hypocenter errors, incorrect data on building stock, , magnitude errors m>8 earthquakes. wrong assumptions on attenuation of seismic waves may introduce errors of factor of 3.


moderate errors, typically 30%, can introduced variations of magnitude m<8, soil conditions, , directivity of energy radiated. other inaccuracies in data sets or input contribute errors negligible compared aforementioned uncertainties.


existing earthquake loss alert services

by email, qlarm team distributing estimates of human losses (numbers of fatalities , injured), in addition calculations of mean damage each settlement in database, following earthquakes worldwide since october 2003. may 2010, these estimates based on program , data set called quakeloss, since time alerts based on second generation tool , data set called qlarm, including map showing mean damage expected affected settlements. first 10 years of near-real-time earthquake alerts team can found in. recent alerts can found on web page of international centre earth simulation foundation (ices), geneva http://icesfoundation.org/pages/qlarmeventlist.aspx.


the national earthquake information center of usgs has been issuing pager alerts email since april, 2009. contain color code reflecting seriousness of event, number of people estimated have been exposed various intensity levels, tectonic information epicentral area, , consequences had resulted previous nearby earthquakes.


global disaster alert , coordination system (gdacs)) has been issuing color-coded earthquake alerts since september 2005. these reports contain comments on socio-economic conditions of epicentral area. measure of level of seriousness, use number of people within set radii of distance. information can misleading because parameters, control extent of disaster, ignored (magnitude, depth, transmission properties, building stock characteristics, , time of day).


estimating losses due tsunami

the methods explained here concern losses due strong ground motions. damage due tsunamis not included. community researching tsunamis struggling problem of making rapid decision after earthquake whether or not tsunami has been generated, how high might in open ocean, , local run ups should expected. methods calculate happens built environment when wave strikes not yet developed.


improvements in accuracy

human losses can estimated sufficient accuracy assist disaster response mobilize in adequate ways. inconsequential events can identified in 99% of cases, means rescue teams not need waste time , energy needlessly mobilize. although uncertainties in estimating human losses in real time large, allow 1 identify disastrous cases need attention.


some of uncertainties in input parameters cannot improved , remain error sources. however, uncertainty in other parameters, databases, can reduced research. of important parameters have hardly been investigated. because many people working on problem, real time estimates of human losses after earthquakes become more accurate , more useful.








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